Nothing Lasts Forever

The historic point-streak finally ends at 15 games, what a ride it was. The last team to do it was the 98’-99’ team, and we all know what happened that year. Can the Stars replicate it?

The most enjoyable stretch of hockey that we have gotten to experience in a long, long time has finally come to an end. A 15-game point streak that began all the way back in January, a run that was quite enjoyable to watch. It seemed as though we were unbeatable for a good stretch, and really, NHL media did not make much of a big deal about it (but I prefer it that way). Ahead of Wednesday’s mass casualty event against Colorado, what have the Stars done well, and what has been swept under the rug by their winning ways? Let’s get into it.

A Quick Aside

Time for a short lesson on Expected Goals. This is probably the best and most well-rounded advanced statistic for hockey, so that’s what myself, and a lot of stats websites use. The chart below showcases both the expected goals for, and expected goals against throughout the season. Expected goals basically assign a value to every shot based on league-average from that position. So a tougher shot, like one from the blue line, equates to a lower xG value, and a high danger shot, like a rebound right in front of the crease, will result in a much higher xG value. A tough angle shot is worth, say, .30 xG, and a wide open rebounding puck shot from directly in front of the net will count for around .80 xG. For a detailed breakdown, look at the xG for both teams last night.

It is not a perfect system, but is about as close as we can get to what the score “should” look like, if the game were played on paper rather than on ice. I digress, let’s see how xG looks for the Stars on this point-streak.

Defensive Dominance

One of the things I noticed the most about this team during this stretch is the defense. Esa Lindell, Miro Heiskanen, and Thomas Harley look to be the best top-3 defensemen in the league right now. They have been killing penalties, exiting the zone efficiently, and notching points to boot. As you probably know by now, I do prefer to find a middle ground between advanced statistics and eye-test. I don’t catch everything that happens on the ice, and I don’t have access to an NHL film room, so for now, we will use 5-on-5 xG/60.

Let’s check out this chart here that I really love. Essentially, large swaths of red are bad (negative xG differential), and grey is good (positive xG differential). If you look about ¾’s of the way through January, you will see a veritable oil slick of grey shading. That is the Stars’ point streak. You can see that at the apex, around the beginning of March (The 6-1 wins against Vancouver and Calgary) really skew the numbers a bit here, but even with that being said, positive xG differentials in games against Colorado, Vegas, Edmonton, and Detroit are a nice accomplishment. Even in last night’s regulation loss, Dallas’ xGF was 2.5 vs Utah’s 1.9 xGF. This typically means that we got goalie’d, and that does happen in the NHL.

The Stars’ defense has not only ramped up their productivity on the ice, killing penalties and creating goal-scoring opportunities, but the physicality that has been brought on by Bichsel and even Miro is tangible. A couple of nights ago, there was a small slash on Oettinger’s padding, and Miro was the first guy to stick up for his goalie after the whistle. Lindell has even gotten chippier as a result, I have seen Harley chirp and taunt other players much more lately. This is one of those things that you simply can’t put on a fancy chart or graph and say “look at how good these guys are,” this is just flat out real hockey they are playing. Gone are the stains of the Pete DeBoer system, Gully has come out and instilled the extra 1 degree that he promised and then some. Since the Olympic break especially and down the last stretch of the season before the playoffs, this team is playing dangerous hockey without some of their best players.

Between The Pipes

For all of the controversy surrounding the Stars’ goaltending situation, the goaltending on this stretch was very good, and absolutely dominant at times. In 12 of the 15 games played during this stretch, Stars netminders allowed 3 or less goals, and even in the loss against Columbus right before this all began, DeSmith only allowed a single goal. In the 6 games leading up to the streak, 5 of them were games in which the Stars allowed 3 or less. While, yes, Casey DeSmith had a rare bad game yesterday, the tenders for the Stars have simply been giving the Stars a chance to win night in and night out. I won’t go too much into the Casey vs Otter debate, because I already have, but Casey has been having a career year here in Dallas, and has absolutely played above his weight class. When you have a guy that is getting paid near league-minimum putting up top-5 numbers and starting ⅓ of the games, you know you’ve struck gold. The question remains, will it be as helpful as we hope come playoff time?

Since before the season started, the expectation has been to rest Otter for more games, so that he doesn’t run out of gas in the later rounds should we get there. Otter is on pace to start roughly 48 games this season, his lowest since his first season as a starter back in 2021-2022. He has started 58, 51, and 62 games in the past 3 seasons, all of which saw Dallas lose in the Conference Final. Jake currently sits at a 2.56 GAA in the playoffs with a .912 SV%, and that is mostly with him bearing the massive load of starting far more games. With 10 more games in the tank, could that be what helps push him all the way to the Final? I guess we will see.

What Is Under The Rug?

So what are the takeaways here? Although there are not many, I do believe we shouldn’t overreact and act like we were a perfect team for the entire stretch. For one, the schedule on this stretch, outside of a few recent games, was filled with bottom-feeding lottery teams. We played the Blues three times, and the Flames and Canucks post-deadline. I am normally not a big “strength of schedule” guy, but there is something to be said about playing mostly teams that are throwing in the towel. This is exacerbated by the fact that it took overtime to beat Nashville, Chicago, and a Detroit team that looks like they may actually miss the playoffs now. The games against Chicago and Detroit were especially frustrating, seeing as how we had the lead going into the 3rd period in both games. Whatever, a win is a win I guess, and every team has elite players like Stamkos, Bedard, and Alex DeBrincat.

Outside of a few isolated incidents of turtling and having to turn on the jets to win against some questionable teams, I genuinely think the Stars played their brand of hockey the entire way through, not allowing anyone to gameplan to throw them off. They largely dictated the pace of the games, and bullied some of the best players in the league. While it stings especially bad to lose to Utah on a night that Colorado lost to Pittsburgh 7-2, the streak was not going to last until the end of the season, and Utah is a very good team. The shorthanded goal given up off of an exceedingly rare Miro Heiskanen turnover coupled with another rare dud from DeSmith does not set off any alarms in my head. The Stars have padded their lead over Minnesota and have closed the gap between them and the once invincible Avalanche. With 2 more games to play against Colorado, anything can happen.

I Don’t Believe In Curses

Do I care about the President’s Trophy curse? No. I want the 1 seed. The ‘99 team won the President’s Trophy, and the President’s Trophy winner has won the cup at a 22% rate in the 37-year history of the award. The “curse” is made up, and in this current playoff format, it is much more of a blessing to avoid the Wild in the 1st round. While recently, the 1 seed has seemed cursed, they are far more likely to win the Cup historically. Since the Conference Seeding era began in 1994, the 1 seed has won the Stanley Cup an astounding 14 times in 31 seasons. That is a 45% rate. It has been a while since it has happened, but there is no curse, there never has been, and having home ice throughout the entire playoffs in this barn is something that should be seen as incredibly important. So yes, let’s catch the Avs and take the 1 seed. That is the scenario we should all be hoping for.

Wednesday Night Heavyweight Bout

Wednesday is bound to feel like a playoff game, and it should, the Stars and Avalanche have become a premier matchup in the NHL. It feels like fate that these two teams will meet in the playoffs every season, and currently they sit tied in the season series with 1 shootout win a piece. They are about as close as you can get, and the fans harbor genuine hatred for one another. The Stars were a Jamie Benn empty netter away from being 2-0 against the Avs, and the Stars will no-doubt be looking to rectify that situation tomorrow night. The Stars will unsurprisingly still be missing their best player and Avalanche-killer Mikko Rantanen as well as Roope Hintz and Radek Faksa. It is seeming increasingly likely that we won’t see Radek or Roope until game 83, and Mikko until at least after the road trip concludes. Honestly, I am not rushing anyone back, the Stars have been playing good hockey, and all lines have been producing through physical play and stout defense and goaltending. I don’t see any reason for concern heading into this matchup, and really see this game as more of a measuring stick game for Colorado than for Dallas. Last season Colorado lost in the playoffs to a Dallas team missing our top scorer in Jason Robertson and our top defenseman in Miro Heiskanen. I don’t see why we should be worried at all about anything except for the fact that it will be a national broadcast (get ready to hear about famous players like Jason Robinson and Wyatt Johnson, and good luck pronouncing Arttu Hyry).

Of course, don’t be sad that the streak is over, be happy that it happened in the first place. We weren’t going to win out this season, and there are still important games to be played. Take a deep breath and enjoy an off day before what will no-doubt be a cardiac Stars game against the evil empire tomorrow night. Enjoy your St. Patrick’s day, drink lots of water, and as always, go Stars.